The Intralinks DFP forecasts the volume of future M&A deal announcements by tracking early-stage M&A activity - M&A transactions across the world that are in the preparation stage or have reached the due diligence stage. These early-stage deals are, on average, six months away from their public announcement.
The latest Intralinks DFP data shows a bounce back in early-stage M&A activity in APAC in Q4 2015, following a sharp slowdown in Q3 2015. Taken together, the early-stage data predicts the following for M&A deal announcements over the next six months (i.e., in 1H 2016):
· Japan and South East Asia appear to be mostly unaffected by the market volatility and economic bad news coming from China - early-stage M&A deal activity has increased in these two regions by 55% and 11%, respectively, year-on-year, indicating that continued strong growth in M&A deal announcements can be expected in Q2 2016;
· North Asia and South Asia appear set for an increase in deal announcements in Q2 2016, following a flat or declining Q1 2016 - early-stage deal activity has increased in these two regions by 21% and 14%, respectively, year-on-year;
· Australia, however, appears to be in trouble, with early-stage M&A activity declining by 18% year-on-year, indicating that 1H 2016 will see a fall in deal announcements compared to 1H 2015. Dealmaking in Australia has historically been skewed to the metals and mining sector and heavily reliant on Chinese inbound M&A activity. A combination of the steep falls in global commodities prices and a slowing Chinese economy will, we believe, contribute to a decline in Australian M&A deal announcements in 1H 2016.
Based on the latest Intralinks DFP data, in the APAC region the High Technology, Media & Entertainment, Real Estate and Healthcare sectors are expected to show the most activity in 1H 2016.
Philip Whitchelo, Vice President of Strategy & Product Marketing at Intralinks, said: “In APAC, early-stage M&A data paints a mixed picture with some regions and countries seemingly unaffected by the economic slowdown in China and volatility. Japan and South East Asia appear to be best placed to increase M&A deal announcements in 1H 2016, whereas, Australia in particular, appears to have been hit by the slowing Chinese economy and its reduced demand for commodities. However, we would argue that when looking at emerging markets such as APAC, investors will have to reject short-term thinking and, instead, be willing to take a long-term view if they are to ensure success. We could see evidence of this in 1H 2016 as companies look to acquire assets by taking advantage of valuation opportunities.”
Other DFP regional findings include:
· North America (NA) - 5.4% year-on-year growth. A modest increase in M&A activity is expected in the first half of 2016 as a result of the Federal Reserve Bank taking a cautious approach to further interest rate rises over the course of this year, continued steady US economic growth, lower raw material and energy costs due to low oil prices and a stronger dollar.
· Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) - 11% year-on-year growth in early-stage M&A activity, making EMEA the highest growing region. Geo-political concerns largely have not affected M&A in the region.
· Latin America (LATAM) - 7.4% growth indicating a renewed interest in the region from dealmakers, even with the dire economic projections for Brazil.
To download the complete Intralinks DFP report or to learn more, please visit our website (www.intralinks.com/deal-flow-predictor).
The Intralinks DFP has been independently verified (https://goo.gl/jFxYQt) as a statistically reliable predictor of the number of future deal announcements.
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About the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor
The Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor provides Intralinks‘ perspective on the level of M&A due diligence activity taking place during any given period of time. The statistics contained in the Intralinks DFP represent the volume of VDRs opened, or proposed to be opened, through Intralinks or other providers for the purpose of conducting due diligence on proposed transactions including asset sales, divestitures, private placements, financings, capital raises, joint ventures and partnerships. These statistics are not adjusted for changes in Intralinks’ share of the VDR market or changes in market demand for VDR services. These statistics may not correlate to the volume of completed transactions that may be reported by market data providers and should not be construed to represent the volume of transactions that will ultimately be consummated during any period of time. Indications of future completed deal activity derived from the Intralinks DFP are based on assumed rates of deals going from due diligence stage to completion. In addition, the statistics reported by market data providers may be compiled with a different set of transaction types than those set forth above.
THIS PRESS RELEASE AND THE INTRALINKS DFP (COLLECTIVELY THE “MATERIALS”) ARE PROVIDED “AS IS” FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. INTRALINKS MAKES NO GUARANTEE, REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY OF ANY KIND REGARDING THE TIMELINESS, ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENT OF THE MATERIALS. THESE MATERIALS ARE BASED ON INTRALINKS‘ OBSERVATIONS AND SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATIONS OF DUE DILIGENCE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE, OR PROPOSED TO TAKE PLACE, ON INTRALINKS’ OR OTHER PROVIDERS‘ VDR PLATFORMS FOR A LIMITED SET OF TRANSACTION TYPES. THESE MATERIALS ARE NOT INTENDED TO BE AN INDICATOR OF INTRALINKS’ BUSINESS PERFORMANCE OR OPERATING RESULTS FOR ANY PRIOR, CURRENT OR FUTURE PERIOD, NOR ARE THESE MATERIALS INTENDED TO PROMISE, GUARANTEE OR ASSURE FUTURE LEVELS OF COMPLETED DEAL ACTIVITY. THESE MATERIALS ARE NOT INTENDED TO CONVEY INVESTMENT ADVICE OR SOLICIT INVESTMENTS OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER.
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