Omdia: US PC Market Returned to 3% Growth in Q4 2025 as Windows 11 Refresh and Component Cost Increases Converged
US PC estimates and forecasts by segment, 2025-2030
US PC estimates and forecasts by price band, 2025 vs 202
Jessop continued, “The education segment remains a weak spot, declining 11% in Q4, although this was a notable improvement from the 29% drop in Q3 and the 16% decline in Q2. Reduced federal and state funding continues to weigh on school procurement, but we believe much of the inventory overhang that characterized the middle of the year has now been cleared. Government shipments edged up 1%, stabilizing after the sharp pullback earlier in 2025.”
“Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 is significantly more cautious. Memory and storage costs have risen 40-70% since the start of 2025, and Omdia expects at least a further 60% increase in mainstream PC memory and storage costs in Q1 2026. These supply constraints are expected to have the greatest impact on the sub-$500 segment, which includes most education and entry-level consumer devices. As thinner margins and lower allocation priority constrain the low-end market, smaller vendors are especially at risk of being squeezed out of the market,” Jessop added.
Omdia forecasts US PC shipments to decline 13% in 2026 to approximately 61.9 million units before recovering modestly in 2027.
(To view the table, please visit https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260330580326/en/)
“Dell, which surged 22% year-on-year to claim the number two position in Q4 with a 25% market share had its strongest quarterly performance in the US in over two years. Its growth was concentrated in the commercial segment, where it benefited from large enterprise refresh deals and strong momentum in its premium lines. HP retained the top spot with 25% share despite more modest 1% growth, while Lenovo and Apple each recorded market share in the mid-teens.
For full-year 2025, however, the biggest story at the vendor level was Apple, which has been making market share gains in US businesses, reaching an 11% share in full year 2025: up 2.4 percentage points from 2024. This growth was driven by the MacBook Air, especially after doubling the M4 Air’s memory to 16GB while reducing the price by $100, bringing it back to the M1’s $999 price point. The $599 Neo extends that value trajectory and is expected to significantly disrupt the entry-level segment,” Jessop concluded.
(To view the table, please visit https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260330580326/en/)
ABOUT OMDIA
Omdia, part of TechTarget, Inc. d/b/a Informa TechTarget (Nasdaq: TTGT), is a technology research and advisory group. Our deep knowledge of tech markets grounded in real conversations with industry leaders and hundreds of thousands of data points, make our market intelligence our clients’ strategic advantage. From R&D to ROI, we identify the greatest opportunities and move the industry forward.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260330580326/en/
Website: https://omdia.tech.informa.com/
Contact
Omdia
Fasiha Khan
fasiha.khan@omdia.com
Eric Thoo
eric.thoo@omdia.com
This news is a press release provided by Omdia.
-
15:45
