DRAMeXchange projects a minimum of 7% QoQ revenues growth in 4Q06
Revenues breakdown by regions in 3Q06 shows us that Korean makers took the dominant role in global DRAM supply with a market share of 41.7%. Taiwan players followed with a share totaled at 19.3%. Over 70% of global DRAM were fabricated by Asian players in 3Q06 if we take Japanese players into account. Since most fresh DRAM capacity in 2H06 was contributed from Taiwanese players, we record their market share grew from 2Q06's 17.8% to 3Q06's 19.3%, accordingly. Among all major DRAM makers, Micron's role keeps fading out as it diverts focus on other memory chips like Flash and CMOS image sensors. Corresponding market share was reduced from 2Q06's 14.3% to 3Q06's 12.1%.
Sales breakdown by companies in 3Q06 highlights Samsung's leading role as it grabbed over a quarter of global market share at 25.9%. Qimonda topped as the second player on solid 12-inch wafer backup support from foundry partners including both Inotera and Winbond. Those who enjoyed relatively strong QoQ sales growth momentum have tightened ties (both technology and capacity) with peers and the growth is evident among players including Qimonda, Hynix and Elpida of the top-five. ProMOS was the one who raised eyebrows among all Taiwanese makers with a stunning 50% QoQ growth, thanks to its ramping capacity from its Taichung fab.
Samsung's 3Q06 DRAM revenues totaled at US$2,350m (+17% QoQ) on a bit growth of 21%. Revenues were mostly contributed by the wafer start at its Line 15 and massive 90nm output. Samsung guides its Line 15 WSPM to reach 20K in 4Q06, while 80nm yields should also show improvements. DRAMeXchange projects its 4Q06 bit growth enlarging to 26%.
Hynix's 3Q06 DRAM revenues reached US$1,440m (+22% QoQ) but Flash revenues did not pick up much on Flash ASPs fell. Its 3Q supply bit growth reached 14% on its 9% QoQ blended ASP growth, as well as rising output from Wuxi, China's first 8-inch fab and ProMOS's Fab 3. Since the second Wuxi fab and Fab 3 should jointly grow 12-inch output in 4Q06, we project Hynix to have a QoQ bit growth of 18% accordingly.
Qimonda's 3Q06 DRAM revenues reached about US$1,521m (+25.6% QoQ) on complete 90nm transition at its JV partner Inotera and fresh capacity from Winbond's 12-inch fab (about 15K/month). Bit growth reached as high as 17% in 3Q06 and should stay above the 15% level in 4Q06, as Winbond¡¦s capacity will grow to 20K/month and SMIC is likely to see its contribution increase as well.
Micron's 3Q06 DRAM revenues totaled at US$1,044m (+1% QoQ). Despite the robust DRAM market boosted ASP in 3Q06, its DRAM sales did not grow much since the majority of DRAM are still fabricated at 8-inch fabs. Although associated depreciation cost burden is lower than rivals, the 8 inch fabs is not as cost efficient as 12 inch fabs. As Micron plans to dedicate more emphasis on Flash and CMOS image sensor in the future, DRAM capacity will be squeezed. DRAMeXchange projects its QoQ bit growth to maintain at single-digit level in 4Q06.
Elpida's 3Q06 DRAM sales (excludes foundries) reached US$956m (+18% QoQ). Foundry partner PSC's 90nm contribution was resulted in a 17% QoQ bit growth and a mild 5% QoQ ASP gain. In addition to constant backup from PSC, growing input from SMIC's Fab 4 should bring Elpida's 4Q06 QoQ bit growth reaching 13%.
Nanya only sees its QoQ DRAM supply bit growth increased by a minimal 7% in 3Q06 due to the full utilization rate at its own 8-inch fabs and Inotera's 12-inch fabs. The 90nm transition issue at Intoera further suppressed final DRAM output. Quarterly revenues reached US$627m (+QoQ 16%) with own-brand DRAM sales totaling US$590m, and ASP grew by 6%. DRAM supply bit growth is expected to grow mildly to 8% in 4Q06 on complete transition of 90nm production at Intoera.
PSC reports its 3Q06 revenues grew by 35% QoQ at US$785m with US$519m as its own-brand DRAM sales. Revenues growth is primarily driven up by the uptick DRAM price trend and the ramping output from Fab 12B (at 40K). However, own-brand DRAM sales were limited as it has to reserve 30-40% of its 90nm output for Elpida and its own growing dedication to NAND Flash production. With the anticipated output from 12M expected to climb to 15K/month in 4Q, we expect an over 20% QoQ supply bit growth to be seen.
ProMOS records an encouraging QoQ DRAM sales growth of 56% at US$561m with own-brand sales totaled at US$448m. The expanded output at Fab 3 (from 23K to 30K) is the key driver. Total foundry occupied 20% of ProMOS's sales as ProMOS has to reserve fixed amount of stack-made DRAM to Hynix. Fab 3 is expected to serve as the key output driver at ProMOS with an anticipated capacity of 50K/month. DRAM bit growth at ProMOS should grow further to 15% in 4Q.
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연락처
DRAMeXchange Jocelyn Chen Tel: +886-2- 77026888 ext 620 이메일 보내기 Fax: +886-2-7702-6989
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2011년 2월 15일 18:51