2HNov DRAM contract price trend beats forecast with persistent growth, says DRAMeXchange

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2006-11-22 11:47

Taiwan--(뉴스와이어)--DRAM continues encountering divergent scenarios at different market places last week. Contract customers brought a better-than-expected price growth of 2-4% amid strong NB demand from mature markets.

Although marketers generally believed DDR2 contract prices would stay flat in 2HNov, the final result shows that the price upside is much stronger than industry players estimated with an average 2-4% sequential growth reported.

The main reasons behind the better-than-expected results are:

1.Strong PC demand for upcoming Christmas

2. Some DRAM makers¡¦ problematic 90nm transition issue tightens supply

3. Growing demand for DDR2 512MB 667MHz DIMM boosts overall DDR2 prices exceed US$50.

Since PC demand only showed meaningful rebounding sign from Aug this year, most PC OEMs previously delivered conservative forecasts to DRAM makers. As PC OEMs started worrying about Vista may postpone consumption in 4Q06, they again boost their DRAM content per box to 1GB and offer aggressive price cuts for NBs prior to Christmas and successfully spur consumption. On the other hand, supply is not completely fulfilling demand as some DRAM makers whom encountered 90nm transition issue before had prompted their customers seek for additional stocks from others.

DRAMeXchange expects system with 1GB DDR2 memory will rise as mainstream with a ratio surpassing 50% or topping 70% during year-end of 2006 and 1Q07, the traditional slow season for PC shipments.

According to the PC specifications that revealed from the two big US PC giants, most US$800-price NBs are still come with only 512MB of memory but those price over US$800 NBs usually go with 1GB. Although the present quote for 512MB DIMM is as high as US$50, only those NBs that price between US$800-1,000 have slightly exceed the reasonable 10% benchmark of DRAM content per box cost.

Projecting DRAM contract price trend in 1HDec, DRAMeXchange sees the price upturn is expected to persist as upstream components who grad the very last opportunity to push their stock prior to Christmas may sustain strong demand. Moving into 2007, DRAMeXchange projects positive outlook for DRAM prices in 1Q07 as the consumer version Vista should bring stronger memory upgrade demand. DRAM, no matter for contract or spot market, should able to deliver a price trend that beats seasonal pattern on the observed extending penetration of higher memory per system.

About DRAMeXchange

DRAMeXchange is a global primary provider of future intelligences, in-depth analysis reports and advisory services on DRAM and Flash memory industry with coverage including current business, spot trading prices, and market trends, capital spending and wafer capacity trends, the impact of DRAM/flash memory products on the market, and other relevant PC industry information.

Founded in 2000, DRAMeXchange serves more than 50,000 clients, including high level company officers, procurement salespersons as well as technology firms and investment community. DRAMeXchange supports IT industry executives, memory related companies, and the investment communities to make fact-based decisions on memory purchases and deploy business strategy. Information about DRAMeXchange and its researches can be found at www.DRAMeXchange.com.

웹사이트: http://www.DRAMeXchange.com