Weak Sustainability amid slow MB Demand Growth for 2H06, DRAMeXchange reveals

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2006-12-06 19:13

Taiwan--(뉴스와이어)--In the wake of CPU price cuts and the arrival of the traditional peak season for PC sales in Q3, worldwide MB shipments began to pickup in August. The trend continued into September, where they reached 38,925K in Q3, an 18.4% QoQ jump, according to market research firm DRAMeXchange. However, shipments in October began to slide again, revealing that the market demand for Q4 may not be as strong as previous years. Affected by a CPU shortage, channels such as Gigabyte have registered decreased sales. On the other hand, Foxconn, Mitac and other motherboard OEMs have maintained a steady growth in their MB shipments, as PC brand makers have a better grasp of the CPU supply.

With the arrival of the Christmas buying season, the CPU shortage problem improved in the 2H of November, where MB shipments grew more stable. However, as many potential buyers are waiting until the Windows Vista launch in Q1, 2007, December…s MB shipments should be relatively the same or slightly lower, in contrast to November. DRAMeXchange projects that the growth ratio and shipment figures in Q4 will respectively reach roughly 10% and 43.3M.

Figure 1 Worldwide MB shipment, 2005-2006

(Please find the attached Worldwide MB shipment data in excel format)

Although the QoQ shipment growth for Tier 1 manufacturers reached 20% in Q3, the percentage ratio may plummet to 5% in Q4. Asus…s MB shipments in September exceeded 5M, a substantial contribution to the 13.7M units posted in Q3. The company…s total MB shipments for the past 9 months in 2006 amounted to 40M. In November, MB shipments declined to 5M. For Q4, it is forecast to post a 5% growth. Total MB shipments for 2006 may reach 55M to 56M, according to the firm.

As for Gigabyte, who has a 75% OBM business, it experienced a more evident MB shipment growth in Q3, due to a stronger European market demand. 4.4M MB were shipped, a 20% QoQ growth. However, in the wake of the CPU shortage in the 1H of Q4 and a higher shipment base in Q3, a negative growth rate is expected for Q4, where a shipment of 3.5M units is projected. Total shipments for 2006 has been revised down to 16~17 M. Although MSI…s performance was relatively the same with Gigabyte in Q3, it should perform better in Q4, as they have a more stable OEM client source. Yet, for 2006, as Asrock and Foxconn are aggressively acquiring orders from SI clients, the shipment target for 2006 is approximately 17 to 18M. This is a 10% to 15% decline from the original 20M target.

Boosted by the rapid development in the Chinese and newly emerging Latin American markets, ECS posted a new record high in its MB shipments for September. The company shipped more than 2.5M MB, a 32% jump compared to the same period last year. .For October and November, the figures slid to the 2.3-2.4M level. In Q4, ECS is expected to see a 4~5% growth. MB shipment may reach 24 M, registering a 20% on year growth--- a stellar performance among Tier1 makers.

웹사이트: http://www.DRAMeXchange.com