DRAMeXchange projects the global NB shipments in 2007 will maintain a 20% growth rate
NB Buying deferred by Vista and Santa Rosa, 2007 won't be too slow
The NB development is currently at an interim stage. In 2006, Intel…s processors have migrated from Pentium M to Core Duo, then to the current Core 2 Duo. Together with the Windows Vista effect, and new models with new specs such as built-in WWAN modules had been launched. Besides the enhancements in the CPU, operating system, hardware interface and other NB specifications, manufacturers also aggressively tried to clear out their inventory in 4Q06 to make way for the newer Core 2 Duo NB models. This was conducted in preparation for the upcoming launch of the Windows Vista and Intel Santa Rosa platform. The Santa Rosa and Vista combination is set to bring a newer change of NBs that has not been seen for the past five years.
Vista…s business edition was introduced in November, 2006. The home edition is scheduled to hit the market in January, 2007, while the Santa Rosa platform is expected be unveiled in April, 2007. Due to these developments, along with the ongoing Intel CPU transition from Core Duo to Core 2 Duo, the price of Core 2 Duo chips are still very expensive. Thus, many consumers, who may have had NB buying plans in 4Q06, have instead postponed their purchases until 2007.
The delayed effect should begin to be felt during 1H07. In the pre-Santa Rosa era for 1Q07, manufacturers are expected to strongly promote Vista Ready NBs that are not equipped with the Santa Rosa platform. Thus, the NB market shouldn…t be too weak for 1Q07. If all goes as planned, when the Vista& Santa Rosa models hit the stores in 2Q07, an increased buying frenzy is anticipated.
These factors helped create a ¨not-so-hot season〃 in the usually strong buying period of 4Q06, and is also expected to produce a ¨much-hotter season〃 during the traditionally weak seasonality of 1Q07.
It is anticipated that the launch of the Santa Rosa platform and Intel CPU price drop will occur in April, 2007. The major bugs that may be found during the initial Vista release in January should mostly be solved by then. The doubts that consumers may hold toward the new product should lessen. Coupled by the expected lower CPU costs, the NB shipments in 2Q07 shouldn…t be as sluggish as before. Based on past experiences in the transition between an older operating system with a newer one, DRAMeXchange expects it will take roughly a year for Vista to become the new mainstream product. Therefore, skyrocketing growth will probably not be seen in 2007. DRAMeXchange estimates the respective global NB shipments in 1Q07 and 2Q07 will be slightly lower and higher than 195 million units. For 2H07, the shipment volume should hit approximately 50 million units.
The average content per box for 2007 will approximately hit the 1058MB level, says DRAMeXchange
DRAM modules are expected to see the biggest growth ratio among the various NB components after the Vista launch. From the official figures from Microsoft…s website, the minimum DRAM requirement in respectively running the Home Basic and Home Premium editions stands at 512 MB and 1GB. In contrast to the minimum requirement of 256MB for Windows XP and Windows 2000, twice as much DRAM memory is needed. According to data compiled by DRAMeXchange, the average DRAM content per box for each NB in 4Q06 is roughly 826MB. By May, 2007, it is projected to surpass the 1GB threshold reaching 1019 MB. The average content per box for 2007 will approximately hit the 1058MB level. In general, the DRAM demand in NBs is expected to significantly grow, as the usage of Vista becomes more widespread.
웹사이트: http://www.DRAMeXchange.com
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DRAMeXchange Jocelyn Chen Tel: +886-2- 77026888 ext 620 이메일 보내기 Fax: +886-2-7702-6989
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2011년 2월 15일 18:51
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