DRAMeXchange Compuforum 2007: What lies ahead for the memory & PC industries in 2H07?

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2007-06-08 08:40

Taipei--(뉴스와이어)--Deemed as one of the most successful international events at the 2007 Taipei Computex show, the DRAMeXchange Compuforum seminar came to a successful close yesterday, as experts and representatives from leading memory manufacturers from 22 countries shared their thoughts and insights on the current memory industry trend.

Viewpoints from the industrial leaders:

Qimonda: 2007 global GDDR output will reach approximately 20 billion Mb

Robert Feurle, Vice President & General Manager of the BU graphics unit of Qimonda--- a leading graphics memory card maker, indicated that the 2007 global GDDR output will reach approximately 20 billion Mb. Qimonda is expected to account for roughly 1/3 (33%~40%) of the production. Owning a performance that surpasses current mainstream standards, the GDDR5, which succeeds the GDDR3, is anticipated to become the next DRAM graphic memory specification. Qimonda is set to mass produce the GDDR5 in 2008.

PSC: The production output from 8 inch fabs will decline from 24.3% in 2007 to 17.3% in 2008

Meanwhile, according to the Vice President of Powerchip Semiconductor's product strategy, Dr. Alex Wang, the production output from 8 inch fabs will decline from 24.3% in 2007 to 17.3% in 2008. This is due to the 8 inch fabs's increasing difficulty in migrating to more advanced process technologies, along with a lower production efficiency when compared to their 12 inch counterparts. As DRAM manufacturers further enhance the production efficiency of their 12 inch fabs, they are faced with the pressing issue of charting the future development of the older 8 inch plants.

Asustek: Desktop market value to hit USD 7.65 million in 2007

During the PC session, Mr. Jerry Shen, the general manager of Asus, said his company forecasts the Desktop market value to hit USD 7.65 million in 2007. The 2007 consolidated revenue target is set at 750 billion ~ 800 billion NT dollars. As for their branded NBs, they expect shipments to reach above 4.2 million for this year.

WitsView believes in the wake of the strong seasonal demand in 2H07

In the NB panel sector, Henry Wang, the general manager of WitsView, stated that the penetration rate of the widescreen format has already reached 87.9% in 1Q07. In addition, he explained that inventory controls will play a crucial role in the business strategies of panel makers. WitsView believes in the wake of the strong seasonal demand in 2H07, panel prices stand a high chance in increasing further. Amid the rise, panel makers should be able to generate more profits.

ONFI 2.0 expected to be completed in 2H07

During the afternoon Flash session, ONFI technical team chairperson and Intel representative, Amber Huffman, stated that with the ONFI 2.0 specification of the NAND Flash module interface already decided (expected to be completed in 2H07), it will create a huge impact on the NAND Flash industry. These developments strongly signify the growing importance of the ONFI working group.

A-DATA: Vista has helped NAND Flash expand from consumer product applications to the PC sector

On a different note, Dr. Gibson Chen, the Vice President of A-Data Technology's Advanced Technology Center, highlighted how the new SuperFetch, ReadyDrive and ReadyBoost functions of the Vista interface improves the overall PC platform efficiency. The ReadyDrive and ReadyBoost respectively utilize the NAND Flash integrated inside the Hybrid Hard Drive and USB Flash Drive to increase the PC speed. Intel's Turbo memory module and the Solid State Drive developed by NAND Flash vendors are both supportable of these two technologies. The release of Vista has helped NAND Flash expand from consumer product applications to the PC sector. The subsequent business opportunities appear to be very promising.

SanDisk: The SSD penetration rate in Notebooks will hit 20% by 2010

Doreet Oren, Marketing Director of SanDisk pointed out that by 2010, the SSD penetration rate in Notebooks will hit 20%. This will consume roughly 11% of the global NAND Flash output.

Viewpoints from DRAMeXchange?

Finally, based on the own analysis of DRAMeXchange, key market trends of the memory industry can be summarized as follows:

1. Capacity growth for 12 inch fabs will grow 73% in 2007. In 2H07, 1Gb chips manufactured by the 70 nm process will gradually become mainstream in 2008. Furthermore, the PC memory content per box for 2GB densities will increase to 40%.

2. Worldwide Notebook shipments are estimated to reach 93.11 million in 2007, taking up 38.52% of the total PC market share. By 2010, Notebook shipments are projected to exceed Desktop computers, accounting for more than 50% of the aggregated PC shipments.

3. Broadband, HD video & 3D content applications will drive the NAND Flash bit demand to grow beyond a CAGR?Compound Annual Growth Rate?of 125% during 2006-2010. The overall NAND Flash price will remain stable in 2H07.

About DRAMeXchange

DRAMeXchange is a global leading provider of market intelligence, in-depth analysis reports and consultant services on major electronics components. Our company consists of 2 major research divisions---DRAMeXchange and WitsView, which cover the DRAM, NAND Flash, PC and display research sectors. You can learn more about DRAMeXchange by visiting www.dramexchange.com.

In the year 2000, the company started to deliver market intelligence services under the name of DRAMeXchange technology. This included the current business environment, real-time spot trading prices, market trends, capital spending and wafer capacity trends, the impact of DRAM/flash memory products on the market, and other relevant PC industry information.

To further expand its research, DRAMeXchange acquired LCD research institute WitsView in 2006 to provide insights on the display industry.

WitsView is a subsidiary brand of DRAMeXchange, which provides prompt and credible market insights covering the quantitative pricing trend for both TFT-LCD panels and finished goods, industry updates and market intelligence. Founded in 2004, WitsView Technology Corporation is made up of a group of sophisticated industry analysts with years of experience, providing objective and strategic insights on the display industry. Additional information can be found at www.witsview.com.

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