DRAMeXchange forecasts DRAM contract price rebounds after 2HJul while recent SLC NAND Flash prices rise steadily
China's summer sales that begin in July, along with Intel's expected low-end CPU price cuts in August should help improve the overall market conditions. Demand in the spot market is already on the rise, as brokers and distributors seek to increase their inventory levels. On a different note, the Hong Kong and Shenzhen regions have been strengthening their anti-piracy activities. Distributors engaged in extremely large trading activities have been arrested. Therefore, the amount of DRAM chips smuggled from Hong Kong to China has decreased significantly. How the DRAM prices, which are imposed with overly high taxes, will affect the actual demand in the China market, will be a key factor in determining the success of retailers and channels in their inventory clear-out.
According to data from DRAMeXchange's Spot Price Database, the DRAM spot price performed more strongly during the second half in the past two years. Thus, despite the huge recovery in the spot price, the traditional strong seasonality of 2H07 will keep DRAM makers from conceding to any additional price cuts. DRAMeXchange predicts the spot market price will hover near the USD2.0-2.5 level.
The contract price has not been following the same trend as the spot price in 2HJun. PC OEMs still need to manage their low-cost DRAM inventory, and the global supply of DRAM chips is still on the rise. July marks the month, where US-based PC OEMs begin to release their quarterly earnings results. They are thus expected to increase their sales in July, in order to provide a better quarterly sales figure. This will help boost the overall DRAM demand. DRAMeXchange projects contract prices may begin to rebound after 2HJul.
Minimal fluctuations were seen in the demand for Flash-based application products in June. Nevertheless, the shortage of SLC Flash has caused its price to increase. Its production output is set to decrease further, as MLC Flash becomes more prevalently used in a variety of products. In addition, manufacturers have no plans in boosting the production of SLC Flash. As their end market demand decreases gradually, DRAMeXchange projects the SLC NAND Flash prices to rise steadily in the near term.
The production costs for MLC NAND is roughly 20%-30% lower than the same-density SLC NAND. Coupled by its adequate read/write speeds and lifetime in various applications, such as USB drives, memory cards, MP3 players and so forth, NAND Flash suppliers have been raising the MLC NAND output ratio ever since last year. At the moment, the ratio has reached nearly 80%. Based on DRAMeXchange's survey, it is expected to hit 85% by the end of 2007.
The increases in the MLC NAND production ratio have evidently driven down the manufacturing of its SLC counterpart. However, there are still a handful of products that employ SLC NAND. This includes GPS navigation devices, high-speed memory cards used in DSLRs Digital Single Lens Reflex, and the recently much talked about SSD Solid State Drive. Such products emphasize more on the stability, read/write speeds and lifetime of the Flash chips. As these niche products are expected to experience stable growth in the near future, the current supply of SLC NAND is less sufficient.
DRAMeXchange believes the overall NAND Flash market price will remain stable in the short term, as the SLC Flash output is expected to decline further. Chances for the NAND Flash prices to drop are minimal. Meanwhile, the more balanced supply and demand mechanisms and imminent arrival of the traditional hot seasonal sales are likely to keep the NAND Flash price trend stable in the third quarter.
More information on DRAM/NAND Flash markets is available on DRAMeXchange's web site at http://www.dramexchange.com/WeeklyResearch/SectionPage.aspx?SectionID=2.
About DRAMeXchange
DRAMeXchange is a global leading provider of market intelligence, in-depth analysis reports and consultant services on major electronics components. Our company consists of 2 major research divisions---DRAMeXchange and WitsView, which cover the DRAM, NAND Flash, PC and display research sectors. You can learn more about DRAMeXchange by visiting www.dramexchange.com.
In the year 2000, the company started to deliver market intelligence services under the name of DRAMeXchange technology. This included the current business environment, real-time spot trading prices, market trends, capital spending and wafer capacity trends, the impact of DRAM/flash memory products on the market, and other relevant PC industry information.
To further expand its research, DRAMeXchange acquired LCD research institute WitsView in 2006 to provide insights on the display industry.
About WitsView
WitsView is a subsidiary brand of DRAMeXchange, which provides prompt and credible market insights covering the quantitative pricing trend for both TFT-LCD panels and finished goods, industry updates and market intelligence. Founded in 2004, WitsView Technology Corporation is made up of a group of sophisticated industry analysts with years of experience, providing objective and strategic insights on the display industry. Additional information can be found at www.witsview.com.
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DRAMeXchange Jocelyn Chen Tel: +886-2- 77026888 ext 620 이메일 보내기 Fax: +886-2-7702-6989
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2011년 2월 15일 18:51
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