APEC Climate Center predicts a cold winter in the northern portion of North America
APCC climate forecasts are based on model simulations from 15 prominent climate forecasting centers and institutes in the APEC region. These forecasts are collected and combined using state-of-the-art schemes to produce a statistically ‘consensual’ forecast. The APCC forecasts are based not just on the magnitude of the seasonal changes that are predicted, but also take into account their simulated probability.
The forecasts for the period December 2007-February 2008 show that the warm conditions seen in November in the northern regions of North America, including the Canadian region and other northeastern regions, may change to cool, especially during January-February; there is a possibility of severe winter weather, with frequent cold spells and winter storms. In contrast, the southern portions of North America, including southern United States and northern Mexico, may see some warming. Further south, the west coast of the equatorial South America may be slightly cooler than normal.
Equatorial Americas are expected to receive slightly increased rainfall. Some regions in the southern portion of North America, particularly the costal regions, show hints of a weak drought. Above normal rainfall is also expected for the Philippines and regions to its southeast, up to central-eastern Australian coast, owing to the ongoing La Niña conditions.
APCC also generates forecasts for each month of the winter. The northeast Russian region is likely to experience strong warming in following January and February. The south-central east coast of the North America may experience a moderately warm period in January. On the other hand, the northwest coast of the Mexican region may see similar conditions in February.
The APEC Climate Center is a major APEC science activity that was established in November 2005 during the leaders meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum in Busan Korea. It produces seasonal and monthly forecasts of climate conditions for all seasons around the globe. APCC collects seasonal forecasts from 15 institutes in the APEC region: National Aeronautics and Space Administration USA, National Centers for Environmental Prediction USA, International Research Institute for Climate and Society USA, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies USA, Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory of Russia, National Institute of Meteorological Research Korea, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul National University, Japan Meteorological Agency, Central Weather Bureau Chinese Taipei, Institute of Atmospheric Physics China, Beijing Climate Center, Meteorological Service of Canada and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Note: The above report and the accompanying figures are based on the APCC forecast for December 2007-February 2008 available at http://www.apcc21.net. The forecasts are based on a retrospective forecast period of all the models for the period 1981-2003.
연락처
Lee,Cho Hyun
Technical Assistant
APCC(APEC Climate Center)
National Pension Corporation Busan Bldg.
Yeonsan 2(i)-dong, Yeonje-gu
Busan, 611-705, Republic of Korea
Tel.: +82-51-668-7471,2
Fax: +82-51-668-7473
Mobile: +82-16-861-5323
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