Panel shipments decline in all 3 applications in Dec. 07

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2008-01-18 17:24

Taiwan--(뉴스와이어)--According to WitsView's survey, global aggregated large-sized panel shipments in December reached 33 million units, a MoM decline of 5.9% and a YoY increase of 45%. For 2007 as a whole, shipments reached 371 million units, up by 37.5% from 270 million units in 2006. With shipments for the Christmas sales season drawn to a close, the market demand has naturally grown weaker. Coupled by the year-end inventory checks, downstream clients have also adopted a more conservative attitude toward their panel ordering. Shipment declines were thus seen in all 3 applications in December, where the TV segment was the most notable; slipping by 12.2% MoM to 7.9 million units. By contrast, the drop in the IT panel segment was less severe. As monitors were already affected by the slow seasonality during November, the shipment decline was down more moderately by 3.6% to 15.1 million units. Meanwhile, NBs slipped by 3.8% to 10 million units.

In terms of area shipments, they slipped from 5.8 million to 5.4 million square meters, a MoM decrease of 7.2% and a YoY growth of 68.7%. Amid the continued ramp-up of the 7.5G and 8G in 2007, the 40” and above panel production increased sharply. In addition, as widescreen monitors migrated to larger screen sizes, area-wise, the aggregated large sized shipment jumped by 57% to 56.1 million square meters. Due to the weak seasonality, declines in the area shipments were also witnessed in all 3 applications for December. For TV panels, they dropped by 10.4% to 2.98 million square meters. Meanwhile, in the monitor and NB segment they respectively dropped by 3% and 2.5% to 1.75 million and 696 K square meters.

TV Panels

In December, the TV panel shipments reached 7.9 million units, down notably by 12.2% QoQ. Meanwhile, in terms of area, they slumped by 10.4% to 2.98 million square meters. With the year-end buying season over in the Europe and US markets, TV panel shipments tumbled sharply. The shipment ratio of 26” declined by 3.3%, due to quality issues in the panel production. For the other below 37” sizes, stable demand from downstream clients rendered shipments to go down only slightly. Meanwhile, in the 40” and above segment, thanks to the ramp up of the G8, the shipment ratio of the 46” and 52” increased respectively from 5.3% and 2.5% to 6.3% and 3.2%. Finally, the ratio of 40” class increased 1.7% percentage points to 33.2%. The TV shipment screen size breakdown can be seen in the figure below.

Monitor Panels

The aggregated monitor panel shipments in December reached 15.1 million units, down by 3.6% MoM. In terms of area, they were down 3% to 1.75 million square meters. As the weak seasonality grew stronger in December, demand for IT panels weakened more rapidly. The demand was also affected by the year-end inventory checks, as downstream clients made sure their respective inventory levels did not pile up. From December’s shipment figures, an evident increase was seen in the ratio of widescreen monitors, climbing from 53.8% in November to 60.2% in December, making it becoming the mainstream display product. Separately, production of the new 15.6”W (16:9) has also started. The increase in the widescreen ratio has produced a squeezing effect on the standard 4:3 products. The shipment ratio of 17” and 19” (4:3) monitors both slipped by 2~3% during December. The monitor shipment screen size breakdown can be seen in the figure below.

NB Panels

In December, NB shipments reached 10 million units, a sequential decline of 3.8%. Area-wise, they were down by 2.5% to 696K. Inventory readjustments by downstream clients after the year-end sales dragged down the NB shipments. Although a few clients tried to make a final attempt in reaching their business targets, the effect was minimal. It should be noted that the Desktop replacement by the 15.4”W and 17”W NB remained steady. As a matter of fact, shipments of the 17”W were instead increased during December, growing by a whopping 13%. The NB shipment screen size breakdown can be seen in the figure below.

Conclusion

Looking back at 2007, amid high inventory levels in 1Q07 and impact from the weak seasonality, panel makers incurred heavy losses. They subsequently reduced their production utilization rates in hoping to ease the market oversupply. Finally, in March, shipments began to increase and in April prices started to trend upwards, prompting downstream clients to place orders earlier. In the second and third quarters, the panel supply grew extremely tight. Beginning from April, panel prices increased consecutively for 7 months, resulting in shipments to continuously post new record highs. To panel makers, 2007 was an extremely profitable year. As the market enters 2008, the market sentiment remains upbeat, as demand is expected to be driven by the 2008 Beijing Olympics and US analogue TV broadcasting shutdown during Mar09. Nevertheless, a close eye should be kept on the worldwide economic development and buying power of consumers.

For 1Q08, despite demand coming from the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year and US SuperBowl sales promotion in Feb08, the slow season is projected to dampen the overall market demand. But for January, shipments should at least be stable. Due to February’s Chinese Lunar New Year holidays, the fewer working days should cause some of the orders to be moved up to January instead.

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