DRAMeXchange projects a mere 2.43% DRAM supply bit growth in 2009

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2009-04-01 08:42

Taiwan--(뉴스와이어)--Battered by the DRAM downturn over the past two years, most DRAM makers are facing cash sufficiency problems and may default payment due in the short term. DRAMeXchange believes some DRAM makers will be forced to maintain low utilization rates of under 50% by end of 2009, resulting in the 2009 DRAM supply bit growth to be only 2.43%, compared to 95% in 2007 and 66% in 2008, says DRAMeXchange.

DRAMeXchange lowers DRAM 2009 supply bit growth estimate from previous 17.82% to 2.43%. The new update is based on our assumption that some DRAM makers will continue to maintain low utilization rates or even conduct more production cuts due to tight cash levels and low DRAM prices.

DRAMeXchange also lowers DRAM 2009 demand bit growth from previous 19.82% to 13.84% due to lower PC shipment growth and content per box growth. The 2.43% supply bit growth should bring the supply below the demand in 2H09 and help the DRAM DDR2 prices move up to the range of $1.2-$1.5 if the inventory reduction goes well.

According to DRAMeXchange¡¦s survey, February DRAM output dropped to 687 Million (1Gb equiv. ), 21% down from the highest level at 867 million (1Gb equiv.) in September 2008. DRAM output should continue to go down further, as some DRAM makers cut more capacity in Jan.- March¡¦09. This indicates that the DRAM market has reached near a balance and should experience a shortage in 2H 2009. However, DRAMeXchange also notices that most PC OEMs, module houses and channel distributors have built up over one month inventory. The inventory will be one issue that could hamper the upward momentum when a possible shortage occurs in 2H09.

About DRAMeXchange

DRAMeXchange is a global leading provider of market intelligence, in-depth analysis reports and consultant services on major electronics components. Our company consists of 3 major research divisions---DRAMeXchange, WitsView and LEDinside which cover the DRAM, NAND Flash, PC, display and LED research sectors.

In the year 2000, the company started to deliver market intelligence services under the name of DRAMeXchange technology. This includes current business environment, real-time spot trading prices, market trends, capital spending and wafer capacity trends, the impact of DRAM/flash memory products on the market, and other relevant PC industry information. You can learn more about DRAMeXchange by visiting www.dramexchange.com.

In 2006, DRAMeXchange acquired LCD research institute WitsView to provide insights on the display industry.

In 2007, LEDinside, a subsidiary of DRAMeXchange was launched and has become one of the most popular and distinguished online news and information provider for the LED market.

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