Full Economic Recovery Slower Than Anticipated…Global Consumer Confidence Edged Up One Index
Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Index tracks consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among approximately 27,000 Internet users in 48 countries. In the latest round of the survey conducted between May 10 and May 26, 2010, consumers in India(129 index points) were most bullish globally, followed by Indonesia / Vietnam(both 119 index points) and Philippines / Norway(both 113 index points). Consumer Confidence Index was weakest in Lithuania, which increased 6 points to 52. Korea and Japan were the second and third most pessimistic consumers.
Vietnam(119 index points) which ranked second globally posted double-digit(+18 index points) increases during the last quarter, while Egypt(78 index points) and Estonia(69 index points) decreased 17 and 10 points each.
Regionally, Latin America topped regional consumer confidence levels at 102 index points, followed by Asia Pacific (101 index points), and Middle East, Africa, Pakistan (MEAP) with 89 index points. In North America, consumer confidence reached 88 index points, while Europe lagged behind as the least confident region at 79 index points.
‘While the global economy is in better shape than it was nine months ago, (+7 index points compared to Q3 2009), the ongoing European debt crisis is a major setback to the global economic recovery anticipated this year.’ said Eun-Hee Shin, Managing Director, The Nielsen Company Korea.
‘If governments of European nations implement new and in some cases, severe fiscal austerity measures, the recession of global economy as well as European economy would be influenced. Meanwhile, Consumer Confidence Index in Korea has been raised 16 points for a year but it seems to slow down at the second quarter as the weakening of the global economy. Even though the European’s economy crisis would not affect on Korea’s economy as much, it has to be considered importantly.’ added Shin.
Asia Pacific: increase of Consumer Confidence Index
Six out of the top 10 most optimistic nations in the second quarter came from Asia and all these markets posted consumer confidence increases quarter-on-quarter. Forty-seven percent of respondents in Vietnam stated they would spend excess cash on new technology—the highest percentage in Asia; 39 percent stated they would spend spare cash on new clothes—a huge jump from 23 percent in the last survey. In Q1, only 16 percent of Vietnamese stated they would invest their excess cash, this has increased to 31 percent in Q2.
‘Financial product awareness and intent to use is also rising dramatically as banks and insurance companies have increased their advertising and Vietnamese have more spare cash on their hands.’ Shin added.
Singapore (which recorded the highest consumer confidence increase in Q1), posted another solid five index point gain from 107 in Q1 to 112 points in Q2. In Singapore, there is a significant drop in the percentage of people who think they are in a recession—just 17 percent in Q2 versus 28 percent in Q1. Almost one in two feels that now is a good time to buy things. After putting spare cash into savings, Singaporeans will spend on holidays, invest in shares of stocks/mutual funds, new clothes and pay off debts.
Europe: Decrease of Consumer Confidence Index due to the spreading debt crisis
While the pace of economic recovery accelerated in most Asian and Latin American markets, the spreading debt crisis in Europe resulted in consumer confidence reversing in most European markets- Egypt(-17 points), Spain(-10 points) and France(-5 points). However, Germany—the region’s largest economy—posted a welcomed rebound with an increase of seven index points up to 81 from 74 index points in Q1, the highest increase in the region.
In Italy, consumer confidence retreated to its lowest level (71 index points) since Q1 2009 when it hit an all time low of 70 index points at the height of the global recession. ‘There is strong evidence of a W-shaped recovery for Italy as consumer confidence in Q2 reversed back into recessionary sentiment. High unemployment, economic stagnation and massive public spending cuts have caused consumers to further cut back on their discretionary spending and lifestyles. Budget-conscious Italians are continuing to turn to discounter shopping channels and private labels despite fast-moving consumer goods retailers and manufacturers intensifying promotions. We expect to see some signs of recovery starting from the second half of 2010.’ said Shin.
The economic situation in Spain is especially restrained, which is indicative of the 10 point index drop. With the highest unemployment in Europe (20 percent) and a reduction of government employees, Nielsen experts estimate the possibility of economic growth will move further out to 2012.
Struggling Baltic nations of Lithuania(59 index points) and Latvia(52 index points) both posted consumer confidence increases of six points each in Q2, although both remain among the most pessimistic nations in the world with low consumer confidence index scores of 52 and 56 respectively. ‘After two years of a deep economic recession in the Baltic countries, local financial institutions are forecasting a slow recovery at the end of 2010.’ said Shin.
About the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey was conducted between May 10 and May 26, 2010 and polled approximately 27, 000 consumers in 48 countries throughout Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North America about their confidence levels and economic outlook. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is developed based on consumers’ confidence in the job market, status of their personal finances and readiness to spend. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of error of ±0.6%.
About The Nielsen Company
The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications. The privately held company is active in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com
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