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2009-03-20 08:47

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Hong Kong--(뉴스와이어)--There was no let up in the deterioration of the health of the global economy in February and early March. In particular, the collapse in global trade since end-2008 is causing severe problems for export-dependant economies, particularly those in East Asia and Germany. Following further downgrades to forecasts for the US, the euro zone and Japan, the Economist Intelligence Unit now expects the world economy to contract by 2.6% at market rates and 1.5% in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2009. We maintain our forecast for a slow global recovery in 2010 and for a subdued outlook in 2011-13.

In the US, the downturn in the housing market has further to run and house prices will continue to fall in 2009-10. Financial market turmoil is now feeding through into the real economy as suggested by the recent severe weakening of the US labour market. Our expectation of 0.7% growth in 2010 assumes that the aggressive monetary and, recently, fiscal policy response gains some traction towards end-2009 and in early 2010. The economy will shrink by 3.1% in 2009.

We maintain our forecast for ultra-accommodative macroeconomic policy in the largest industrialised economies. In view of the further deterioration in the health of the euro zone's economy, we have revised our forecast for the European Central Bank's policy rate, which we now expect to be lowered to 0.5% by mid-2009. Interest rate convergence and continued heightened risk aversion should support the US dollar over the short term. We have, however, revised the yen down against the US dollar following recent weakness and in view of the dramatic deterioration in Japan's economic prospects.

Our oil price (Brent blend) forecast is unchanged at US$40/barrel in 2009. Sharply reduced demand will be matched by cuts in supply from OPEC member states, but this will not be sufficient to put upward pressure on prices. As demand remains subdued in 2010, prices are forecast to rise to an average of only US$50/b.

Any queries on the economic assumptions should be directed to Robert Ward in London, or Jan Friederich in Hong Kong. All queries on the commodity price forecasts should go to Caroline Bain, Senior commodities editor, also in London.

웹사이트: http://www.eiu.com