Global Property returns slow in 2007, IPD shows in new index
CI and TITLE
The fall in local currency total returns on the Global Index reflected deceleration or continuing decline in all of the five largest contributing markets · the US, UK, Japan and France · with Germany alone improving on its 2006 result, despite a further fall in capital values. Higher returns were achieved when expressed in terms of £ Sterling or $ US, since these currencies deteriorated in value through the year. Conversely, Yen and Euro returns were lower as these currencies appreciated through the year.
The three years to end-2007 witnessed a boom in property returns across the globe, as the weight of investment capital has pushed up values, though the precise peaks for international investors have depended on the currencies in which they have been working.But for all denominations except $ US, the last three years’ total return has beaten the 5-year and 7-year averages.
In 2007 the strongest national market returns were those of South Africa, which returned 27.7%, and the Pacific Rim countries: Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the US. Most European markets now look to have passed their peak levels of return, with the UK showing a dramatic dive into property recession · and a negative overall performance, even with the mitigating impact of income.
At the London launch, IPD co-founder Dr Ian Cullen said. “The major real estate investment management houses have all now started to accept global mandates, and so need transparency on a comprehensive and consistent basis stretched beyond national boundaries. This is the main purpose of IPD’s first Global Index, which is already documenting the complex and far from synchronised process of decline from the 2006 world market peak return.”
Sector Performance
Offices represented the strongest of the four global property sectors covered by the IPD Global Index in 2007, with a total return of 14.2% - as global business service growth remained buoyant through most of the year. The credit crunch had only just started to impact on real estate values by December, and this effect was as yet largely confined to the UK. Australia, the US, France and Canada stood out amongst major index contributors with impressive Office growth.
Retails were the weakest sector in the 2007 IPD Global Index returning 8.6%, and reflected faltering consumer confidence in the US and UK, where it was the weakest form of commercial property. However by contrast Retail was the strongest sector in many mainland European markets, with the strength and stability of the Euro currency supporting the sector.
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